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Thursday, February 24, 2011

Oscar predictions

First things first, I absolutely hate the fact that the Academy Awards expanded the best picture nominations to 10 movies instead of five.

I mean, c’mon, Toy Story 3? I doubt it gets one vote. And Winter’s Bone? Don’t get me started. I still haven’t seen True Grit, however I can promise you this: no matter how much I like or dislike that movie, it won’t change who I THINK will win, rather than who I’d like to see win. I don’t know why I haven’t seen True Grit yet. I love the Coen Brothers, own and enjoy at least nine of their movies and like Matt Damon and Jeff Bridges. It got great reviews but there is something about it that I just can’t bring myself to see it or get excited about seeing it. I will eventually, but not before the Oscars.

Anyway, If this were 2009, or any of the previous 72 years in the show’s history (2010 was first year they changed it to 10 movies nominated), we would have seen five nominations for best film. If that were the case, I’m betting the nominees would have looked like this: The King’s Speech, The Social Network, The Fighter, Black Swan and 127 Hours. Again, Haven’t seen True Grit, but find it hard to believe they’d sneak a remake in over those five features.

Best Picture:
Who I think will win: The King’s Speech has become the front-runner, it’s well acted, a timely piece and it’s based on a true story. I think it’s 70/30 King’s Speech to Social Network, however there is a small chance, and I stress the word small, that the voters will split on The King’s Speech and The Social Network and all of a sudden you get some third party who slightly edges out the both of them, like 127 Hours or Black Swan. But that’s doubtful.
Who I would like to see win: Well, Inception was my favorite movie in 2010 but it doesn’t stand a chance.
My personal ranking out of these movies: 1.) Inception 2.) The Social Network 3.) The Fighter 4.) Black Swan 5.) The King’s Speech 6.) 127 Hours. 7.) The Kids Are All Right (There are movies I enjoyed more than a lot of the ones nominated, i.e. Blue Valentine, which is a crime for not being nominated over 127 Hours, Winters Bone or Toy Story 3.) I’m in the minority when I say this, but I’m absolutely indifferent to animated films. I just don’t care about them, no offense. You may notice I didn’t mention anything about Winter’s Bone and it’s solely because I didn’t enjoy one ounce of the movie which could have to do with me having the volume on my TV the highest it would go and still having trouble hearing what was going on.

Best Actor:
Who I think will win: Colin Firth and it won’t even be close.
Who I would like to see win: Ryan Gosling...oh, wait. Honestly, I’m not shocked Gosling didn’t get nominated, despite nabbing a Golden Globe nomination for his role in Blue Valentine but it does shock me that Javier Bardem got nominated for Biutiful (which I do want to see). It shocks me for many reasons one being, he wasn’t nominated for a Golden Globe or SAG award, which normally won’t bode well and according to Entertainment Weekly, Bardem is the first actor ever to be nominated for Best Actor for his portrayal in an all Spanish speaking film. I figured if Michelle Williams got nominated for Best Actress (which she did) then I thought Gosling would be nominated too, since their performances play so well off each other as a failing married couple. Other than Franco in 127 Hours, I don’t think Bardem, Bridges or Eisenberg stand any chance whatsoever. Was Eisenberg good in The Social Network? Yeah, but his acting chops in this film don’t stray too far away from his other films, a nerdy, quick-witted, loner (Aventureland, Zombieland, The Squid and the Whale). But this is Firth’s category to lose.

Best Actress:
Who I think will win: Natalie Portman
Who I want to win: Since I enjoyed Blue Valentine so much, I’d like to see Williams get it, but really, I’m not going to lose any sleep no matter who wins.

Best Supporting Actor:
Who I think will win: I did think Christian Bale was a lock, but now I’m not quite sure with all this love affair going on with The King’s Speech. Geoffrey Rush could steal it from Bale, but if I had to bet, I’d still go with Bale.
Who I’d like to see win: I thought Jeremy Renner was incredible in the The Town, but those types of films don’t normally win awards and considering that’s the only nomination The Town got, he doesn’t stand a chance. I thought Ruffalo was great in The Kids Are All Right, and actually, he was the main reason I enjoyed that film however, I've always like Ruffalo. But I love Bale’s body of work and thought he did a terrific job in The Fighter, so I would like to see him win.

Best Supporting Actress:
Who I think will win: Melissa Leo seems like a lock to me as well, but again, don’t underestimate any category that has someone nominated from The King’s Speech (Helena Bonham Carter).

Best Director:
Who I think will win: I have no idea. I think this category is still pretty wide open although I’m betting David Fincher is the front-runner. This may be an award decided on the director’s whole body of work, rather than their recent films considering three of these directors have very, very impressive resumes. Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan, The Wrestler, Requiem For A Dream, The Fountain and Pi), The Coen Brothers (True Grit, No Country For Old Men, Fargo, The Big Lebowski) and Fincher (The Social Network, Seven, Fight Club, Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Zodiac. P.S. Christopher Nolan not being nominated in this category is asinine. 
Who I'd like to see win: I guess I'll go with Fincher here simply for the fact I don't want to see The Social Network walk away empty handed from any of the night's top awards.

By Nick Carrabine


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